Counter-factuals

The force of the Bush/Mc Cain/ neocon argument for a necessary "victory" in Iraq rests slightly on the percieved US national interest, slightly on the issue of future credibility and to a large degree on the emotional impact of a hypothetical "unimaginable bloodbath" if US forces were to withdraw. This has been effective in scaring democrats and others into their vague, non-committal stances but what is the factual basis of this "mass slaughter" argument?

Historical precedent has been used and abused by some victory-at-all-costs proponents. Some claim the US public is responsible for mass slaughter in SouthEast Asia following the withdrawal of our forces from Vietnam. This line of reasoning suggests public pressure snatched US military defeat from "the jaws of victory" and that deaths in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam following withdrawal were directly attributable to that action. Both of these themes are pushed by the right-wing, which refuses to accept the fact that US foreign policy "experts" tragically mis-analyzed the social conditions of South East Asia. They are also both totally false.

Framed thus, it then becomes incumbent on proponents of withdrawal to "prove" that the action will NOT cause genocidal anarchy. And yet no such "proof" exists that it will, nor is it ever demanded. And if stability were to break out following a US withdrawal, that would be PROOF not only of the criminal nature of the current occupation but of the incredible intellectual poverty of the whole US foreign policy apparatus. The scare tactics used by "surgers" include "total regional war", creating a "base for alQaeda" and allowing the terrorists to "follow us home". Following their logic, any domestic act of terror, any terror cell discovered in the Middle East and any conflict in the region automatically was caused by US withdrawal. Yet any of those things happening while the US occupies Iraq only proves the need to escalate. The conundrum of illogical logic. I say the withdrawal and the transition to Shiite rule can be managed, although I can't prove it. Iran and the Muslim Caliphate can be contained. So can the US.