Flux Deluxe
A veritable tsunami of concurrent crises make it more than a little difficult to get a grip on trends unfolding in real time. Add to that the many different lenses through which the whole conglomeration can be seen and it is little wonder massive incoherence rules the day.
Start with energy. Forty year old GE reactors melting down and a government/industry cabal that no one trusts as the information source. This follows right on the heels of the largest oil spill in history, where the public also was lied to,though has probably forgotten altogether. The technologists assure us the future belongs to them, that they will deliver us from this energy impasse with "innovation". How much longer will citizens put their faith in Expert Managers? Of course we are told it is either nukes or coal/oil/ natural gas and all fossil fuel based energy does the same thing radiation does, poison life on earth. Since our global economy needs abundant energy like an addict needs dope, this is what passes for choice.
Which brings us to economy. Europe is bleeding but wants a piece of Libya so it is willing to invest. Japan was hurting before the natural disaster and will now be deeper in the red. The Arab revolutionaries are also going to want a change from 15% unemployment and the growing inequality neo-liberal reforms have brought them but what is their 'comparative advantage', as they say in development circles? Markets are incredibly jittery and volatile and one wonders what lies around the corner?
As for the US, it is difficult to understand what lens the foreign policy establishment sees Libya and the greater revolution through. Oil, War on Terror, failed state vs stabilization, democratization ( Bahrain sort of puts the lie to that one), Israel? Iran? Wolf Blitzer thought Hillary might have been traumatized by watching Rawanda unfold. Somehow doubt it. The domestic politics are certainly interesting with zero consensus on left or right over intervention and virtually nobody predicted this would unfold the way it did.
Perhaps the ones who come out looking the silliest are Chavez and Morales as they cling to their outdated Che imagery but I think this Revolution is going to be complex and involve a lot more than people wanting to be franchised. And it's interesting how all these dictators have picked up on calling their enemies "terrorists", thinking they would then be free to do whatever they want to them. They absolutely get the logic of drones and the Israeli security forces.
posted by troutsky @ 4:48 PM
17 comments
17 Comments:
You're wrong. Chavez and Morales just look like Chavez and Morales. What are they doing that's any different from their usual bullshit? The ones that look silliest is the so-called "right", with their enemy of my enemy bullshit. A clue-the second enemy in this case might not necessarily be Qaddafi, if you catch my drift.
Actually, Obama was (until he decided to go along with this No-Fly Zone bullshit) handling this situation as well as could be expected of him. That is, if you can look past the fact that he was probably in this up to his eyeballs all along, albeit covertly, through actors from the state department, in concert with aspects of the EU, the UN, and probably other outside NGO agitators. Looking at you, Code Pink, SEIU.
I'm glad you at least see through the European's typical hypocritical stance.
The west is just demonstrating its commitment to a doctrine of right to protect ... not civilians rather Exxon France Total, ENI Italy and any other who may be there.
We know BP is up to its ears.
Ducky-BP? Do you have any tangible evidence of that? Remember, the Brits had a deal with Qaddafi. I can't see how it would be in their best interests to get rid of him. It would be one hell of a gamble. I can see where they would try to take advantage of the situation after the fact, and no doubt that's what they're doing. But BP? They were probably the main beneficiaries of the Brits new diplomacy with Qaddafi. You don't really think they released the Lockerbie bomber out of the goodness of their hearts, do you?
Well Pagan, I think we'll find it's all too little too late.
The despots saw what happened in Egypt and they've drawn a line. Meanwhile Hillary is probably working with the Egyptian military on the list of acceptable candidates. They might be getting some of that Iraq style democracy only the sewers in Cairo aren't backed up into the streets.
Will there be moves toward democracy. Some small steps, but it's taken a while in South and Central America some progress. Can't expect much more here.
The oil supply will be secure regardless of who is the putative head of state and the arms will all come from the usual suspects. It's good business.
Hmmm, I may be quite wrong, Pagan.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12796972
I don't think oil is what is involved as a major motivator. Gaddafy was just fine to deal with a month ago. He already opened the wells to imperialism.
I think the big picture, is derailing the Arab Revolution. Its to discourage mass mobilization.
Chavez has been dead wrong on this issue.
They unquestionably wish to derail any mass movement, look at Bahrain.
Hillary has probably already slipped a list of candidates to the Egyptian military with a military aid figure next to each one.
Libya, to me, is different. Qadaffi is capable of an extreme level of butchery and if we can defuse that then so be it.
But, yes, there isn't much evidence that our heart is in liberation.
Ducky-Liberation from what? And liberation to what? What kind of freedom do you think these people are after? The right to read whatever newspapers and books they want to read? The right to listen to western music?
What about the women? Are they going to have the right to wear comfortable clothes in that hot, arid, god-forsaken desert they live in?
Do you think maybe freedom and liberation might mean something totally different to these people than it might to you?
How long do you think its going to be before Sunni Islam adopts the same policy towards homosexuals as the Episcopal Church?
Do you think maybe there's a chance that's never, ever going to happen?
Hey, here's a thought. Maybe one of these days, when some crusty assed old perverted Arab man decides he wants to marry an eight year old girl, and finds a family he can arrange such a marriage with, reckon there's a chance the girl will ever have the freedom to say hell no? You know, without having to worry about being lashed to within an inch of her life by her local imam, with her father's blessing, or vice versa?
Why do you give a rats ass about these "people"?
Ducky-Liberation from what? And liberation to what? What kind of freedom do you think these people are after?
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Same thing you and I want.
Why do you give a rats ass about these "people"?
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Because I have evolved.
Good for you Ducky. Now as soon as they evolve enough to where they actually care about their women and their girls, maybe I'll start to give a shit about them. Until such time, not so much. Oh, by the way, a minimum of vows of death and destruction on the infidel would also go a long way. And all those attacks against the Israelis. Not cool, but hey-that's just me.
It is incredibly fluid, which is why Chavez and the Right wing and the Stalinists and anybody locked into a dogma try to squeeze events through their lens and end up looking silly. Look at Yemen! No one knows the outcome.
Pagan: To the degree that conservative Islamic forces are maneuvering for power I share your concern. Same with Christians here or Jews in Israel. But they are also being forced to "evolve" their positions. The Muslim Bros in egypt are having to liberalize.
In the American revolution, elites were forced to act like democrats, just as imperialists are now having to act like democrats. This doesn't mean they like it or even mean what they say. They will no doubt go back to their old ways. But it is POSSIBLE they are being forced to support freedom for the time being.
Freedom is no more than a buzz word that can mean anything to anybody, depending on the people and the circumstances. Where freedom to us might mean the freedom to vote or to organize, etc., freedom to other people might mean freedom from pests eating up all their crops, or freedom from famine, plaque, etc.
There can be a very big difference between freedom "to" and freedom "from", and how you go about achieving that freedom could be totally different in one case from another.
The American revolutionaries were fighting mainly for freedom from taxation without having a voice at the table. They just wanted to build a climate more conducive to their business interests, and they wanted greater political freedom as well. The franchise wasn't extended nationally until sometime later, and that was a two way street. The people that granted it wholly expected to benefit.
Muslim religious leaders will never change. They could under the right circumstances, but it would take a massive loss of life. Even if you concentrated solely on killing all the more radical imams and their immediate supporters, I have no doubt it would still end up with a death toll in the tens of millions. People today just don't have the stomach for that. At least, not yet. Give it time. A few more 9/11's and you'd be surprised what people will be willing to support to rein this crew in. I'm already there, but that's because I know that's what its going to take to put a stop to it, and nothing less will do the trick.
For example, if two or three thousand Palestinians are killed by Israeli reprisals tomorrow, they'd basically make a big show of grief and use it as a recruitment tool for more terrorist actions.
Now if two or three HUNDRED thousand of them were killed by such a reprisal, it might make them sit back, internalize it, and think maybe their shit isn't such a good idea.
Trout, I believe the MB has changed much as religious party's in Turkey have changed. They have learned that they have to coexist within a political sytem and this is positive.
I think the West often misses the fact that the most frequent victims of Muslim radicalism are other Muslims. The extremist point of view just doesn't prosper in an open society although there is some reason to worry about Indonesia, which never gets a look from the wet.
Pagan, the bit about Muhammad as a child molester is crap. Please, go back and study a little bit about the third and fourth century culture of Semitic peoples.
Ducky, you're way off base there. I wasn't talking about Mo and his little baby girl bride that he waited until she was nine before he fucked her, I'm talking about shit going on TODAY. Get your nose out of Kapital and take the time to read shit that's going on today, for God's sake.
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